Editorial: Many rich nations will recover to pre-pandemic levels next year but progress will be highly uneven and every nation will need vaccination to progress as swiftly as possible
The latest forecast for the world economy from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) is unusual in many ways, but the most striking aspect is that it makes clear vaccination rollout against Covid-19 – rather than the usual prescriptions about fiscal, monetary or trade policy – emerges as much the most effective instrument in getting the world back to sustainable economic growth.
Vaccination – for the sake of the economy as well as public health – must be done urgently and on a truly global scale. Without it, the world may never be as stable as it was before.
As things stand, much of the world will have returned to pre-pandemic levels of output by the end of next year – but the progress is varied and the prospects uncertain. America, China and Germany are the major economies leading the way, and already at, or near to, their 2019 output “peaks”. Britain will also stage a comeback to some kind of economic normality by the spring of 2022.