The housing market has retained a surprising amount of momentum given the mounting pressure on household budgets, Nationwide Building Society said.
The average UK house price hit a new record high in June but there are “tentative signs of a slowdown”, according to an index.
Prices were up by 10.7% 在六月, slowing from 11.2% 在五月, Nationwide Building Society 说.
Across the UK, the average house price in June was £271,613, up by 0.3% month on month.
Robert Gardner, Nationwide’s chief economist, 说: “The price of a typical UK home climbed to a new record high of £271,613, with average prices increasing by over £26,000 in the past year.
“There are tentative signs of a slowdown, with the number of mortgages approved for house purchases falling back towards pre-pandemic levels in April and surveyors reporting some softening in new buyer inquiries.
“Nevertheless, the housing market has retained a surprising amount of momentum given the mounting pressure on household budgets from high inflation, which has already driven consumer confidence to a record low.
“Part of the resilience is likely to reflect the current strength of the labour market, where the number of job vacancies has exceeded the number of unemployed people in recent months.”
Mr Gardner said that, at the same time, the stock of homes on the market has remained low, keeping an upward pressure on house prices.
“The market is expected to slow further as pressure on household finances intensifies in the coming quarters, with inflation expected to reach double digits towards the end of the year.
“Moreover, the Bank of 英国 is widely expected to raise interest rates further, which will also exert a cooling impact on the market if this feeds through to mortgage rates.”
Looking across the UK, Mr Gardner said quarterly figures showed a softening of house price growth in many regions in the three months to June.
“The South West (of England) overtook 威尔士 as the strongest-performing region in quarter two, with house prices up 14.7% year on year, a slight increase from the previous quarter.
“This was closely followed by East Anglia, where annual price growth remained at 14.2%.
“Wales saw a slowing in annual price growth to 13.4%, 从 15.3% in the first quarter.
“Price growth in Northern Ireland was similar to last quarter at 11.0%. 同时, Scotland saw a 9.5% year-on-year rise in house prices.
“There was a slowing in annual house price growth in England to 10.7%, 从 11.6% in the previous quarter.
“While the South West was the strongest performing region, overall southern England saw weaker growth than northern England.
“Within northern England, 这 North West was the strongest-performing region, with price growth picking up to 13.3% year on year, 从 12.4% in the first quarter.
“London remained the weakest-performing UK region, with annual price growth slowing to 6.0%, 从 7.4% in the previous quarter.”
Myron Jobson, senior personal finance analyst, interactive investor, 说: “Property prices have gone up faster than wages, creating an affordability squeeze, while mortgage rates have risen to levels we haven’t seen in a while.
“These factors, as well as the prospect of higher interest rates to rein in runaway inflation, are likely to go some way towards taming frothy housing prices.”
Nicky Stevenson, managing director of agent group Fine & Country, 说: “Increased borrowing costs have come at a time when disposable incomes are already shrinking and the UK is edging closer to recession.
“These pressures are bound to stretch affordability in the months ahead with inflation still to peak and more aggressive monetary tightening now being signalled by the Bank of England.”
Gabriella Dickens, a senior UK economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, 说: “We expect house prices to drop by around 2% in the second half of the year, pushing down the year-over-year rate to around 2% by the end of the year.”
Tomer Aboody, director of property lender MT Finance, 说: “There is still evidence of confidence in the market due to the desire to buy and take advantage of mortgage rates before they increase further.”
Jason Tebb, chief executive of property search website OnTheMarket.com, 说: “A subtle rebalancing continues as more stock comes to market.
“This is partly down to the seasonal effects of summer, traditionally a time when you would expect increased stock to become available.”
Sarah Coles, senior personal finance analyst, Hargreaves Lansdown, 说: “The question is whether we will see prices slow to a crawl, stagnate, or start to drop if we see a recession.
“An awful lot depends on things we don’t yet know – including how high interest rates will go, how deep any recession might be, the impact it could have on jobs, and whether this is serious enough to cause real damage to the property market.”
她补充说: “The desperate dash for property at a time of rocketing prices may be over.
“Buyers have time to consider whether this is a move they can really afford, and whether they’ll still be happy they made it if prices pull back later in the year.”
Here are average house prices in the second quarter of 2022 followed by the annual increase in prices, according to Nationwide Building Society:
– South West, £318,325, 14.7%
– East Anglia, £289,024, 14.2%
– Wales, £208,309, 13.4%
– North West, £213,888, 13.3%
– West Midlands, £244,167, 11.8%
– Yorkshire and the Humber, £205,714, 11.8%
– East Midlands, £234,828, 11.4%
– Outer South East (includes Ashford, Basingstoke and Deane, Bedford, Braintree, Brighton and Hove, 坎特伯雷, Colchester, Dover, Hastings, Lewes, Fareham, 怀特岛, Maldon, Milton Keynes, New Forest, 牛津, Portsmouth, Southampton, Swale, Tendring, Thanet, Uttlesford, Winchester, Worthing), £348,564, 11.1%
– Northern Ireland, £181,550, 11.0%
– North East, £159,283, 10.6%
– Outer Metropolitan (includes St Albans, Stevenage, 沃特福德, Luton, Maidstone, 读, Rochford, Rushmoor, Sevenoaks, Slough, Southend-on-Sea, Elmbridge, Epsom and Ewell, Guildford, Mole Valley, Reigate & Banstead, Runnymede, Spelthorne, Waverley, Woking, Tunbridge Wells, Windsor and Maidenhead, Wokingham), £433,558, 10.0%
– Scotland, £181,422, 9.5%
– London, £540,399, 6.0%