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Inflation edges lower despite rising fuel prices

Inflation edges lower despite rising fuel prices
The Office for National Statistics said Consumer Prices Index inflation fell to 3.1% in September from 3.2% in August.

Inflation nudged lower last month partially due to the unwinding of the Eat Out to Help Out scheme, despite rising fuel and transport costs.

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) said Consumer Prices Index (CPI) inflation fell to 3.1% in September from 3.2% in August.

However, the figure remains far above the the Bank of England’s target rate of 2%.

Analysts had forecast that inflation was likely to stay flat at 3.2% for the month.

It comes ahead of a predicted further rise in the cost of living, with the Bank of England warning last month that inflation could rise to more than 4% before falling back as the economy continues to recover from the pandemic.

(PA Graphics)

Mike Hardie, head of prices at the ONS, said: “Annual inflation fell back a little in September due to the unwinding effect of last year’s Eat Out to Help Out, which was a factor in pushing up the rate in August.

“However, this was partially offset by most other categories, including price rises for furniture and household goods, and food prices falling more slowly than this time last year.

“The costs of goods produced by factories rose again, with metals and machinery showing a notable price rise.

“Road freight costs for UK businesses also continued to rise across the summer.”

Average petrol prices stood at 134.9 pence per litre in September 2021, compared with 113.3 pence per litre a year earlier, as fuel provided an upward pressure on inflation, the ONS said.

It added that a rise in used car prices – which were 2.9% higher in September than the previous month – also contributed to increased transport costs.

The rebound in air and sea passenger transport also had a positive impact.

Household goods also increased for the month, with furniture and furnishings increasing by 3.8% against September last year.

However, the ONS said these rises were offset by deflation across restaurants and hotels.

It said this was driven by the removal of discounting last year due to the Eat Out to Help Out scheme.

Martin Beck, senior economic adviser to the EY Item Club said: “The Club expects inflation to pick up again in October, once the 12% increase in the energy price cap takes effect.

“A number of factors are then likely to push CPI inflation up to over 4% by the end of the year and keep it at a high rate – by the standards of recent years – through the first half of 2022.

“The recent increases in the oil price will continue to feed through to petrol prices, while component shortages and supply chain challenges will continue to put upward pressure on global goods prices.”

The Retail Price Index (RPI), a separate measure of inflation, increased to 4.9% for the month.

The CPI, including owner-occupiers’ housing costs (CPIH) – the ONS’s preferred measure of inflation – was 2.9% in September, compared with a 3% reading in August.